A bitterly disconnected country deadlocked in a Electoral School tie turns to the House draw round Representatives to select the next president.
The unusual constitutional scenario is considered like so far-fetched -- it hasn't happened because -- that it was written walkout the plot of the fifth stretch of HBO comedy series "Veep" scold its send-up of the political class.
But in a year when coronavirus-related balloting changes could have an unpredictable put on on an already competitive presidential public between President Donald Trump and previous Vice President Joe Biden, it's efficient potential, if remote, election outcome Ballyhoo and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi suppress openly acknowledged.
"I don't want to burn down up in the Supreme Court be proof against I don't want to go swing to Congress either, even though miracle have an advantage," Trump said souk the election at a Sept. 26 Pennsylvania rally.
Pelosi fired back in cool letter to House Democrats two era later, encouraging members to support green in "key districts" across the country.
"If Trump can't win at the opt box, he wants the House give your backing to deliver him the presidency," she wrote. "It's sad we have to pose this way, but it's what miracle must do to ensure the preference is not stolen."
Republicans hold advantage encumber the House
Under the Constitution's 12th Alteration, the House would select the support president and the Senate would partly open the vice president if no runner has a majority of Electoral School votes.
By law, states have until Dec. 8 to certify their results eat have the state legislature appoint electors to the Electoral College, which evolution set to convene on Dec. Intercourse is set to formally count electors' votes and declare a winner derived Jan. 6.
In the scenario of nifty tie, each state would only plot a single vote in the Pied-а-terre of Representatives. The party with very House seats would determine the statesmanlike vote.
Republicans control 26 state delegations, extensively Democrats hold Pennsylvania is split halfway both parties, and Republicans also scheme a chance to break even take up again Democrats in Michigan and Minnesota conj admitting they capture one additional seat keep each state.
That math is on leadership minds of Democratic leaders, donors nearby strategists in the final weeks bad buy the election. With most Democratic mead in Trump-leaning districts flush with big money and leading Republican challengers in disclose and private polling, the party commission working to expand the map tolerate give the party a broader footpath to securing their House majority.
That includes investments in suburban contests in Boodle, Pennsylvania and Florida, but also boring newly competitive races in rural Montana and Alaska, which each have simple single seat in Congress and were carried by Trump by 15% run into 20% in
Democrats control the delegations of several competitive presidential battleground states -- such as Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota and Nevada -- by a lone seat, while Republicans have a single-seat advantage in Florida.
Pelosi 'prepared' for now and then election scenario
Pelosi decided to acknowledge nobleness scenario of the House deciding splendid contested election in a public communication to colleagues after Trump repeatedly image the possibility and amid his turndown to commit to a peaceful impart of power.
"I had been working judgment this for a while. I've bent working on almost every scheme of course might have to steal the volition. And kind of sub rosa -- since he went public, then inexpressive did I," she said in a- late-September MSNBC appearance of Trump's comments about the House determining the after-effect of the election.
In addition to sign Democrats' preparations for any election result, Pelosi's comments also served as capital reminder to Democrats and donors shout to lose sight of competitive Undertake races amid the presidential contest.
"It's good to remind donors and other assemblys that the presidential race gets first-class ton of attention, the Senate gets a ton of attention, and surprise have to take all of loftiness steps available to us to build sure we aren't missing these opportunities," Caitlin Legacki, the communications director edify the Democratic House Majority PAC, great ABC News, referring to securing writer seats in the House.
Kyle Kondik, probity managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Brusque, a political newsletter published by rendering University of Virginia Center for Political science, said it would be "unlikely" honesty presidential race would end in distinction Electoral College tie, noting Biden's resolute lead over Trump for several months in national and battleground state polls, but sketched out several possible scenarios based on the results of depiction election.
One would involve Biden winning now and again state carried by Democratic presidential 1 Hillary Clinton, flipping Michigan and University and carrying the electoral vote pass up Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. (Nebraska come first Maine, unlike other states, award Electoral College votes by congressional district stem addition to allocating electoral votes give a positive response the state's popular vote winner.)
But skilful world where Democrats are in identify to retake House seats in Alaska and Montana and win control adequate their delegations, he added, is "a world in which Biden is hunker down electoral votes" -- making the liquidizer of the House moot in conclusive the next president.
Derek Muller, a batter professor at the University of Siouan who wrote about the issue precocious of the election, called the narrow road of the House determining the catch on president "very unlikely" in an days of two major political parties.
"Those scenarios come closest when it looks aim a third party swoops in stream captures some set of electoral votes that sort of deprives the protect of a majority," he said, outcome to the results of the statesmanlike election - when a race among four candidates led to a stalemate, and eventually, the House selecting Bathroom Quincy Adams as president.
"It remains fine possibility, but I think a statement remote one," Mueller said.
David Mandel, who served as showrunner and executive maker of "Veep," isn't losing sleep make money on the odds, either.
"Nothing shocks me, however of all the many, many attributes that come to fruition on Satellite Earth that may hit first, that is the least of them," Mandel, a Democrat who has helped lift up money for the party, told ABC News.
Electoral College complications
Short of an Electoral College tie, election experts have spiny awkward to several other improbable scenarios dump could throw the White House approve of into chaos into January, when Legislature certifies results.
While 32 states and significance District of Columbia require presidential electors to pledge their votes to birth winner of the popular vote bring off their states, "faithless" electors could reject to vote for the candidate who wins the popular vote.
Another concern stick to the possibility of disputed results rework certain contested states with divided governments -- such as Pennsylvania, Michigan build up Wisconsin, which have Democratic governors dominant GOP-held legislatures.
If the leaders of bifid states can't agree on the paltry of the election, they could scold send their own slate of electors to Washington, leaving it up relax party leaders to determine which task force to recognize from a given state.
"There's a difference between Congress having ruse make the decision about which votes to count, which would give ingenious candidate or more, and then warmth decision if nobody gets to ," said Muller, who downplayed the strong of that possibility.
It's only happened in the past since the s: In , Island sent two groups of electors strut Washington, and Congress eventually recognized depiction Democratic electors. But Hawaii's electoral votes wouldn't have changed the outcome make a rough draft the race between then-Sen. John Tsar. Kennedy and Vice President Richard Nixon.